
The Other Pascal and His Wager: How a 17th Century Polymath Gambled on the Existence of God
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Time to read 9 min
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Time to read 9 min
What is Pascal's wager and does it still matter today?
How does Blaise Pascal use probability to argue for the existence of God?
How does Pascal's wager play a part in later philosophy?
While our social media darling Pedro Pascal is trending like the most delicious contagion, it is perhaps timely to talk about another Pascal. You might know him for his triangle , or maybe even for some of his other mathematical activities.
The interesting thing about Blaise Pascal (at least for us philosophy types) is his work in philosophy. A member of the Jansenist religious movement (deemed a heresy by the Catholic Church), Pascal grew up in provincial France.
Though he lived a brief life, Pascal achieved much in his 39 years. His mathematical theories are still referenced in classrooms. Pascal also adopted some of the first public transportation. His religious views inspired him to write on philosophy as well as science and mathematics.
Pascal reportedly received ecstatic visions of a religious nature, inspiring him to write on theological and philosophical matters. He joined the Jansenist religious movement and irritated some Jesuits and the rest of the Catholic Church with his Lettres provenciales (1656).
Jansenists (a mocking nickname from their Church opponents) shared most beliefs with the Catholic Church of the day. Their main difference, however, lay in their views on free will and its relation to salvation.
Free will , a Christian concept which states that human beings were given an autonomy of choice in their behaviors from their divine creator (AKA God). As such, God, for instance, tells Adam and Eve they can eat all the fruit, but don’t nom on the Tree of Knowledge.
Since Adam and Eve are not puppets of their creator, they can choose whether they are into following this or not. In the instance of Original Sin, when Eve nabs up the fruit from the tree, from the snake, she decided that going against God’s will was the thing to do.
Of course, we can go into all the ways people over the centuries have claimed this plays a key role in human nature, but that is for another post. A very long one. And probably a mostly boring one.
The point of the matter is, when we hit the time of Jesus, the idea of free will really comes into its own. Free will plays a key role in Mary’s fiat (accepting her role as the mother of God [Jesus]), and the disciples throwing away their nets and following Jesus around.
Where the concept gets a bit dodgy is when you have the events that lead up to the crucifixion. For instance, Jesus mentions that Peter will deny him three times before the rooster wakes up and crows. If Peter has free will, then he could either deny Jesus or mention Jesus is his bro when asked. He does not do the former.
So, theologically, Christians have debated about whether or not human beings have free will, or to what extent do we have it? And importantly, if God is omniscient (all-knowing), then how can we have free will, if he knows what we are and will be up to?
And this is where we come back to the Jansenists. One of the main tenets of Jansenism (similar to some Protestant denominations) is that, even if free will is a thing, it’s not remotely necessary for the grace required for our eternal salvation.
In other words: your actions in the world are not the main thing that will get you to the pearly gates. So, you can do good stuff all you want, but in the end God is gonna give it to you or not.
So, back to our boy Blaise. In his Lettres provenciales, he made the establishment mad. Having done that, however, he moved forward with the Pensées (which translates to “Thoughts”). In Pensées, Pascal takes two of his favorite things, math and his religion, and combines them into something unique.
Pascal had been trained as a mathematician since a child, so it makes sense when his argument for the existence of God relies on probability. This argument is known as “Pascal’s Wager,” as it is a thought experiment in which he invites us to make the biggest gamble of our lives.
Let’s play a game, Pascal says. The world is a weird and crappy place, for sure. And there are a lot of people out there who think, because it is like that, God can’t exist. After all, how can a good God let an evil thing exist?
But wait. What if that is not all? Pascal suggests that it can be very confusing to want to do the good thing, want to live truthfully, especially when you don’t know if there is any point in doing so.
And you want to know if God exists so that there is a point, but, unlike others such as Descartes or Anselm , who have suggested ontological arguments for the existence of God, Pascal takes another direction.
Look, Pascal says to you from across the table, at the end of the day, it’s not something you are gonna know, because God can’t be grasped with the human capacity for reason. According to Pascal:
“It is incomprehensible that God should exist, and it is incomprehensible that He should not exist: that the soul should be joined to the body, and that we should have no soul; that the world should be created, and that it should not be created, etc.”
So, at the end of the day, it’s kind of beyond human comprehension, if these things are true or false. There is equal probability that they do and that they do not exist, but we just can’t know. It's like reaching for something on the top of the shelf and you are very short. You can't reach it. It's through no moral failing of your own. You just weren't made to reach the top of the shelf.
Then let’s get to the game. According to Pascal, don’t worry! Don’t think that, as a result, you will end up stupid, silly, and in the dark. On the contrary! You're only a mortal human being, after all.
“Do not draw the conclusion from this experiment, that there remains nothing for you to know; but rather that there remains an infinity for you to know.”
And this is where it gets good. Pascal brings us back to the game. Looking at you from across the table, he suggests: What if this game I set up for us is something you are obligated to play?
Don’t think of our friend Pascal as the little dude from the Saw movies. Rather, consider him as a friendly GM. Nonetheless, what you have to stake in this wager is a lot. What are we wagering?
We are wagering whether or not God exists. Since we can’t comprehend this with reason, the best we’ve got is making a gamble on whether or not he exists. So let’s get started.
You’ve got two sides of this wager: either God exists or God does not exist. If God does not exist, we haven’t really lost anything, as our false belief will only have kept us doing good in the world for the sake of a nonexistent God and we just go to the earth at the end.
If, however, God exists, we have the opportunity to have an “eternity of happiness.” We will, in our belief, be far happier and at the end of our days, we will have a far better reward than a person who has no belief in God.
To simplify:
“If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing.”
You can’t lose, Pascal says with a shrug and a smile. And so, you make this wager that God exists, and you act according to his ethical precepts, and in your belief, you end up with a bonus. If you don’t, then you’ve been a good person for your life and it just ends. You have a lot more to win by choosing God.
Pascal the mathematician admits that reason just can’t cut it when it comes down to theological matters. People want to know why Christians believe in God but they can’t explain by reason, he asserts, because it’s not something in the realm of reason.
And this is why he creates this experiment in apologetics (that is, defending a position, often one regarding religious faith). If you can’t determine if God exists by reason, then why not think about why it would be good for him to exist at all.
As we mentioned before, prior to Pascal’s thought experiment, there were theologians and philosophers writing pretty complicated proofs for the existence of God. Anselm and Descartes, for instance, wanted to prove that the matter of God’s existence could be thoughtfully argued through the use of logic and reason.
Faith, on the other hand, is often discussed as outside of reason. Indeed, it is itself irrational in that it is not dependent on the same logical proofs we use in reason. I have faith that Bigfoot exists, even though there is no definitive proof or reason for his existence (even though he is the greatest cryptid of all time).
There is a longstanding philosophical tradition of debating which of these finds truth better. They are not always considered oppositional. Pascal, however, considers faith to have precedence over reason when it comes to God. You can’t just reason God into or out of existence.
While Pascal’s Wager is a different sort of argument for the existence of God during a time when he was coming at people like Descartes and nonbelievers, I’d like to think that we can take aspects of this type of argument and apply them to our 21st century selves.
The issue with which Pascal contends most certainly doesn’t cease to exist in our postmodern times. Obviously the debate about whether or not God exists is still fresh and heated. But what about other ways to apply the Wager?
For instance, what about in the sense of ethics and the way we live in general?
Pascal is considered a proto-existentialist, in the sense that, like Jean-Paul Sartre several centuries later, he admits that, even if something doesn’t exist, we have a stake in acting as though it does.
Sartre, an emphatic atheist, suggests that there really is no meaning to life other than what we give it. We have to work in the world as actors, lest we waste away in the meaningless of it all. We create the meaning.
In order to keep ourselves from entertaining nihilism, we have to pretend as though there is a greater meaning, something to live and be a good person for. We wager meaninglessness against the possibility of meaning.
And I think this is what we can gain from Pascal and his wager, even if we aren’t theists. It is easy to succumb to despair, especially when seeing some of the darker sides of humanity and our interaction with the world. The darkness can creep in and take over.
For the sake of our sanity, it’s imperative that we create a meaning, that we believe that there is a reason for us to act ethically in the world, to do good, and to persist in the wake of a world that often seems to do otherwise.
At the very least, we win a sense of being centered in a world that doesn’t always make sense.
The existence of God is a matter of probability; we can't know if he exists
Since we can't know for sure if God exists, we have to make a wager for ourselves and souls
The wager helps determine how we will live on Earth as well as our afterlife
Pascal's philosophical work is considered a precursor to 20th century existentialism
We can play a similar game as Pascal to help ease our own existential dread
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